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Oakville Milton Clarkson/Lorne Park inventories continue to show tightness

Contrary to what we've been reading in the media over the past several months middle class housing in Oakville Milton and Clarkson/Lorne Park areas continue to display a stickiness and continue as a seller's market.  Luxury properties over $1mm continue to be "well offered" but even inventories of those properties are moving slightly lower.   A tight or sellers' market exists when less than 3 months of inventory is available.  In other words if no new listings came on the market the inventory would be absorbed within a 3 month period.  Similarly a "neutral or balanced" market exists when inventory levels are between 3 and 6 months.  A 'buyers" market is said to exist when inventory reaches above the 6 month mark.  Here is the November 2010 chart:

                                     Oakville                      Milton               Clarkson/Lorne Park W13

200-399.9k                 2.30                            1.43                         3.78 months of inventory available

400-499.9k                  3.14                           2.00                          3.50

500-749.9k                   3.00                           4.82                          6.50

750-999.9k                    6.29                           too few                     8.33

1000-1999.9k                 7.50                          too few                      7.33

2000-2999.9k                  43.0                         too few                       8.50

3000k+                             35.0                           too few                      16.0

Purchasers in those categories with sub 3 months of inventory will have less opportunity to negotiate much better prices.  Categories between 3-6 months have "neutral" inventory levels and buyers would have some negotiating room.  Categories with inventory levels much above 6 months are deemed to be "buyers market" where many choices are prevalent and therefore buyer negotiating room would be likely and expected. 

The only cavaet to all of this analysis is that the number of unit sales have dropped off from summer levels.  Listings therefore have also dropped.  It will be interesting to see how things develop in spring when most of the seasonal real estate activity occurs.  Are lots of sellers waiting for the spring market to list their house?  Most realtors will advise them to do so.  Can we expect spring housing demand to continue as last year?  Probably not given we had the "push forwarding" effect of the HST in Ontario.   I will keep you posted in the next few months.

Posted: Friday, December 03, 2010 2:05 PM by George Dlugosh


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